On Thursday (January 8th) during the Asian trading session, US crude oil traded at $56.40. Oil prices fell for the second consecutive trading day on Wednesday, as investors digested US President Trump's announcement of a deal to import up to $2 billion worth of crude oil from Venezuela. The market generally believes that this move will increase the supply of crude oil from the world's largest oil consumer, thereby reinforcing expectations of ample global supply this year.

On the other hand, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that as of the week ending January 2nd, US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels, far exceeding analysts' expectations of an increase of 447,000 barrels. However, gasoline and distillate fuel inventories increased significantly by 7.7 million barrels and 5.6 million barrels respectively, far exceeding expectations. Morgan Stanley analysts predict that based on weak demand growth last year and increased production from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, the oil market may experience a surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day in the first half of this year.

From a daily chart perspective, US crude oil prices are generally trading within a medium-term downtrend channel. Recent rebounds have encountered significant resistance around $60, which has now become a key technical resistance level. The moving average system is bearishly aligned, with short-term moving averages continuing to decline and suppress prices, indicating that the market remains in a weak phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 40, not yet entering the extremely oversold zone, suggesting that the downside potential has not yet been fully realized.

In the short term (1-hour chart), crude oil prices have made a second downward move, reaching a new low, although the decline has slowed compared to the previous trading day. The moving average system is bearishly aligned, and the short-term objective trend remains downward. The MACD indicator is intertwined below the zero line, indicating that bearish momentum is dominant. It is expected that crude oil prices will rebound slightly during the day, but there is still a risk of further decline. Today: Short at 56.85, stop loss: 57.20, target 55.50.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.