On Wednesday (January 7th) during the Asian session, US crude oil traded around $57.07 per barrel. Oil prices fell on Tuesday as the market weighed between expectations of ample global supply in 2026 and uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan oil production following the arrest of leader Maduro. The US action on Saturday to arrest Maduro could accelerate the end of the oil embargo on Venezuela, thereby boosting production and further exacerbating price pressure. The market is closely watching the future direction of Venezuelan oil supply, with US President Trump declaring that US oil companies are ready to invest in the country to increase production and exports. Three sources revealed that US oil company executives are expected to travel to the White House as early as Thursday to discuss related investment plans.

From a global perspective, supply-demand mismatch is becoming a key factor suppressing oil prices. Morgan Stanley points out that global crude oil demand growth is significantly lower than historical averages, while supply increases from OPEC and non-OPEC countries continue to expand. Data shows that demand growth is slowing while supply remains at a high level, which could lead to a significant oversupply in the global crude oil market in early 2026. Some institutions even predict that the potential oversupply in the first half of the year could reach 3 million barrels per day.

US crude oil is still trading within a downward channel on the daily chart. After its previous rebound was blocked at the $60 mark, prices have fallen back, indicating that this area has become a clear resistance level. In terms of moving averages, short-term moving averages have crossed below medium-term moving averages and continue to diverge downwards, reflecting that the downtrend has not yet reversed. Momentum indicators show that the RSI is still below 50, without a clear oversold signal, indicating that the downside potential has not yet been fully realized.

In the short term (1H), crude oil briefly rose to around 58.85 before falling sharply, recovering the gains of the previous few trading days. The moving average system has turned downwards, and the short-term objective trend is downward within a wide range. Currently, crude oil is fluctuating within a wide range on the daily chart. In the early morning, oil prices touched the lower edge of the range, indicating strong bearish momentum. Crude oil is expected to trend downwards today, with attention focused on the lower support level of the trading range. A break below this level would likely lead to further declines. Today's strategy: Short at 57.10, stop loss at 58.20, target 56.00.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.