On Friday (December 19th) in early Asian trading, US crude oil traded around $56 per barrel, maintaining a generally weak trend. Prices have been fluctuating around this level for a long time, not far from the year's low. This reflects market hesitation amidst bullish and bearish factors: on the one hand, geopolitical tensions surrounding some oil-producing countries and US actions regarding energy and sanctions continue to inject a risk premium into oil prices; on the other hand, the slow pace of global economic recovery makes the outlook for oil demand less convincing, limiting the sustainability of bullish momentum. From a fundamental perspective, recent support for oil prices comes more from expectations than from actual changes.

The market is concerned that US restrictions on oil transportation and exports could affect local supply in extreme cases, but there is currently no evidence of a substantial impact on the global supply structure. At the same time, discussions about easing regional tensions have also led some funds to cautiously exit at higher levels, making it difficult for oil price rebounds to be sustained.

From a daily chart perspective, the technical structure of crude oil remains bearish. Prices are still trading within a medium-term downtrend channel, with multiple medium- and long-term moving averages trending downwards, significantly suppressing any rebound. At key levels, the $55-$55.5 area forms important support, as this range coincides with previous lows; a break below this level could lead to further declines. On the upside, the $57.5-$58.5 range represents a confluence of previous rebound highs and short-term moving averages, acting as a major resistance level.

In the short term (1H), crude oil has entered a consolidation phase after a rebound, fluctuating within a narrow range of $56.85-$55.55. The short-term objective trend is sideways. Momentum is evenly matched between bulls and bears. It is expected that crude oil will fluctuate downwards during the day, forming a wider consolidation range. Today's strategy: Buy at $55.35, stop loss at $54.85, target $56.80.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.