In early Asian trading on Tuesday (October 7), US crude oil traded around $61.73 per barrel. OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it would increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, a relatively modest monthly increase, similar to October. Oil prices rose over 1% on Monday as the smaller-than-expected OPEC+ production increase eased some concerns about rising supply. However, a weak demand outlook may limit near-term gains.

In the short term, some analysts expect the upcoming refinery maintenance season in the Middle East to help contain oil prices. Expectations of weak demand fundamentals in the fourth quarter are another factor limiting market upside. However, the market also faces concerns about potential oversupply. According to the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global oil market could see a record surplus of 3.3 million barrels per day in 2026, an increase of 360,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast. If OPEC+ continues to restore production capacity, this oversupply situation could materialize prematurely, dampening oil prices in the medium term.

From a daily perspective, crude oil prices have encountered resistance at the upper limit of the range, with the K-line chart closing with two consecutive large black candlesticks and retreating to near the lower limit of the range. The medium-term objective trend of crude oil remains volatile. The range is between 66.00 and 60.80. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines are poised to cross above zero, indicating a dominant bearish trend. Crude oil is expected to remain range-bound in the medium term.

In the short term (1H), crude oil is consolidating in a narrow range at a low level, with prices failing to reach new lows. Moving averages continue to suppress prices, and the short-term objective downward trend remains unchanged. The overall trend in the morning session was characterized by minor fluctuations, with the MACD indicator forming a bottom divergence below zero, signaling weakening bearish momentum. Crude oil is expected to rebound within the day before encountering resistance and primarily falling. Overall, the operation strategy for crude oil today is recommended to focus on rebounding to high altitudes, supplemented by pulling back to low altitudes. In the short term, pay attention to the 63.0-64.0 resistance line on the upper side, and the 61.5-60.5 support line on the lower side.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.