On Tuesday (August 5th), US crude oil traded around $66.30 per barrel in the Asian session, having fallen to its lowest level in a week on Monday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (collectively known as OPEC+) agreed on Sunday to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. This latest in a series of accelerated production increases aimed at gaining market share met market expectations and marked an early and full reversal of the group's largest batch of production cuts. Additionally, data showed that US oil production hit a new monthly record in May, exacerbating concerns about a global oversupply.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks continue to create market uncertainty. The United States is pressuring India to halt purchases of Russian crude oil in an effort to pressure Moscow to compromise on Ukraine. US President Trump has even threatened to impose a 100% secondary tariff on countries that continue to import Russian oil. The US already imposed a 25% import tariff on India in July. Furthermore, the market remains focused on a new round of US tariffs on major trading partners, which could curb global economic growth and weaken the recovery in fuel demand.

US crude oil prices on the daily chart show continued downward pressure, hovering around $66, having consecutively fallen below the support levels of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen into neutral to weak territory, indicating insufficient short-term momentum. A break below the previous support level of $65.50 could test the key defensive level around $64.00. Conversely, a break above $68.50 could rekindle a rebound.

Overall, bears are in the driver's seat, and the short-term trend is bearish, but caution is advised against technical rebounds triggered by policy or geopolitical events. Overall, today's trading strategy for crude oil is to primarily buy on rebounds, supplemented by buying on dips. Focus on resistance at $68.50-$69.5 on the upside, and support at $65.00-$64.0 on the downside.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.