BTC

Since its early April low of $74,450, BTC has surged over 66%, repeatedly breaking through to new historical highs over the past four months. However, each rally has been smaller than the previous one, forming a potential rising wedge pattern. The wedge is a typical reversal pattern, traditionally believed to see price movements spanning at least two-thirds of the pattern’s duration from the bottom to the endpoint. The current price movement from the low to the pattern’s endpoint spans approximately 183 days, with two-thirds equating to 122 days.

With only about a week left until the 122-day mark, the price is now precisely at the lower boundary of the wedge, poised for a potential breakdown. Combined with the gradually declining trading volume, it’s evident that bullish momentum is fading.

Therefore, we recommend investors closely monitor the price reaction at the lower boundary of the wedge. If the breakdown exceeds 3%, consider entering a short position.

ETH

ETH’s trend mirrors BTC, having risen steadily from its early April low of $1,383, achieving over a 180% increase. Reviewing the price action since its mid-December high last year, we see that after breaking out of a nearly five-month descending channel, ETH formed a flag pattern. This pattern, typically a continuation signal, unexpectedly broke downward to the Fibonacci 0.5 level before rebounding. This tricky move, however, strengthened bullish confidence due to the failed breakdown.

On July 28, the price surged to $3,943, just 4.26% shy of the historical high of $4,111. Recently, the price has formed a smaller flag pattern near the Fibonacci 1.618 level, likely indicating continued upward momentum. Using pattern analysis (blue line), the upside target is estimated at around $4,373, aligning with the Fibonacci 2.0 level.

Given the confluence of multiple technical factors, we believe the price is likely to continue rising in the near term, at least breaking through the historical high to the $4,300 level. Short-term traders may consider going long at the lower boundary of the flag pattern, with a stop-loss set below $3,500.

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.