On Monday (June 16) in the Asian market, oil prices continued the strong rebound trend of last Friday. US crude oil once jumped 6% to $77.49/barrel, and now fell back to $73.45/barrel. Because Israel and Iran once again erupted in confrontation during the weekend, the situation in the Middle East has worsened. Oil market participants are worried that the conflict may spread to the entire region, thereby seriously disrupting crude oil exports from the Middle East, and the international market may face a serious supply shortage.

According to market surveys, the current spare production capacity of OPEC and its allies (including Russia) is roughly equivalent to Iran's daily production, which is about 3 million barrels/day. However, since some spare production capacity is in a state of technical bottleneck or political restriction, there are still doubts whether it can fully make up for Iran's potential export gap.

From the daily level of crude oil, the medium-term trend of oil prices broke through the upper resistance of the range and tested a new high of 75.50. The moving average system is arranged in a bullish pattern, and the medium-term objective trend direction is upward. The current trend is in the upward rhythm of the main trend. The MACD indicator fast and slow lines overlap with the long column above the zero axis, indicating that the bullish momentum is currently full, and it is expected that the medium-term trend is expected to usher in a wave of increases.

The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil continues to fluctuate upward, and the price near 74 is tested. The moving average system relies on the long arrangement of oil prices, and the short-term objective trend direction remains upward. In the morning, oil prices hit a new high near 75.30, and randomly rushed up and fell back to close the negative line entity K line. Short-term momentum is still dominant in the bulls, and it is expected that the trend of crude oil will continue to maintain a high-level oscillation upward rhythm. Today: 70.90 long, stop loss: 69.10, target 74.00.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.