On Thursday, oil prices surged significantly, with the U.S. WTI crude June contract closing up $1.84 at $59.91 per barrel, a gain of 3.2%. Brent crude for July delivery rose $1.72 to settle at $62.84 per barrel, up 2.8%. The main driver of this rebound was market optimism surrounding upcoming trade talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and senior economic officials from Asian countries. However, during Friday’s Asian session, oil prices failed to sustain Thursday’s strong upward momentum and pulled back slightly.

Jim Ritterbusch of U.S. energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates commented, “In recent years, global risk premiums that influenced oil prices have been replaced by tariff-related premiums, which now fluctuate based on the latest announcements from the Trump administration.” U.S. President Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Starmer announced a "breakthrough" agreement, yet the U.S. continues to impose a 10% tariff on British goods. The U.K., meanwhile, reduced tariffs on U.S. goods from 5.1% to 1.8% and granted greater market access. While the move signals progress, it also underscores ongoing frictions in global trade relations.

Although OPEC+ announced a plan to increase oil production, actual output remains constrained by geopolitical factors. Market surveys indicate that OPEC’s crude output may have slightly declined in April, primarily due to U.S. efforts to restrict oil flows, which reduced Venezuelan exports, alongside declines in Iraqi and Libyan production.

According to the Bitop market analysis team, international oil prices surged nearly 3% on Thursday amid improving global trade sentiment, with Brent closing at $62.84 and WTI nearing the $60 mark. Despite the rebound, volatility driven by trade-related concerns is expected to persist. If the U.S. and Iran reach an agreement, a supply surge could push Brent down toward $50. Conversely, if talks fail, oil prices could rise above $70. OPEC+ production plans, U.S. restrictions on oil trade, and the new U.S.-U.K. trade deal all add uncertainty to the oil market’s future. Monitoring geopolitical developments and policy shifts among producing nations is advised.

On the daily chart, the current pattern clearly shows a short-term uptrend. Prices have risen to near the $60 level, breaking above several short-term moving average resistance levels. The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages are now in a bullish alignment, indicating strong short-term sentiment. A fresh MACD golden cross and red momentum bars suggest continued upside potential. The RSI is at 63—approaching overbought territory but not yet extreme—hinting at limited room for further gains. Prices are testing the key resistance near $60.50; a breakout with volume could see a move toward the $62 area and the upper Bollinger Band. However, if resistance holds, a pullback may occur. Key support lies at $57.80 (20-day MA), with stronger support near $55.

On the 1-hour chart, prices rebounded to around $60.30 before facing resistance and pulling back. The price has dropped below key moving averages, shifting the short-term trend into range-bound consolidation between $55.30 and $60.30. A series of bearish candles and progressively lower lows indicate weakening momentum. The MACD fast and slow lines are in bearish territory, with strong downward momentum. The intraday outlook suggests prices will likely fluctuate within this range, with a higher probability of downward movement.

For today’s crude oil trading strategy, it is recommended to focus primarily on buying on pullbacks, with short-selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key resistance is seen at the $62.0–$62.9 range, Key support is seen at the $59.3–$58.7 range.

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