On Friday (April 11), during the Asian session, U.S. crude oil traded around $59.87 per barrel. Oil prices fell nearly 4% on Thursday, closing down the gains of the previous trading day, as investors reassessed the U.S. plan to suspend comprehensive tariffs, and refiners remained on the sidelines under the risk of tariff uncertainty.

U.S. EIA data showed that crude oil inventories surged by 2.6 million barrels last week, far exceeding the expected 1.4 million barrels; the surge in inventories and the decline in exports made oil prices unable to rebound in the short term. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 on Thursday, and warned that if the trade situation continues to deteriorate, oil demand growth will slow significantly. The agency also lowered its forecast for global oil consumption growth, suggesting that crude oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the future.

From the daily level, crude oil fell below the lower edge of the range in the medium term, with oil prices touching around 60. The moving average system turns and diverges downward, and the medium-term objective trend direction is downward. Due to the downward trend caused by tariffs, pay attention to its continuity, and further determine that the medium-term downward trend will fall to 55 or even 50.

The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil rebounded strongly upward due to the news, and the oil price returned to around 62. The oil price crossed the moving average system, and the short-term objective trend direction entered a transition period. The bullish momentum showed strong performance. It is expected that crude oil will continue to move upward with this wave of bullish momentum during the day, and the increase will be weaker than the previous day. On the whole, the operation strategy of crude oil today is recommended to focus on low-level longs and rebound high-level shorts. Pay attention to the 62.0-61.8 resistance line on the upper side in the short term, and pay attention to the 58.0-57.8 support line on the lower side in the short term.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.