On Tuesday (February 4), US crude oil continued to fall in the Asian session, trading around $72.44/. Fundamentally, Trump imposed comprehensive tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and Asian powers on Tuesday. Concerns about affecting global economic growth and rekindling inflation have resurfaced. According to data from the US Department of Energy, Canada and Mexico together account for about a quarter of the oil supply processed by US refineries into fuels such as gasoline and heating oil. Tariffs on imported energy from Canada and Mexico may affect the US energy market.

OPEC+ agreed on Monday to stick to the policy of gradually increasing oil production from April and remove the US government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) from its information sources for monitoring production and compliance with supply agreements. Starting in April, the UAE will end its 2.2 million barrels per day production cut (the latest production cut plan) and begin to increase production, increasing production by 138,000 barrels per day per month. The production increase will continue until September 2026. According to OPEC+'s past practice, it is expected that a final decision on the April production increase will be made in early March.

From the daily level, crude oil tested the upper edge of the wide channel in the medium term, and then fell immediately, which was in line with the fundamentals. The K-line closed with a negative entity for a long time, and the moving average system showed signs of turning downward. The short-term momentum performance was dominant, and the medium-term trend returned to the range, and the overall trend was mainly downward in the range.

The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil rebounded to 76, and the second test was finally resisted downward. The amplitude of the low-level range fluctuation was expanded, forming a diffuse triangle shape. The oil price crossed the moving average system up and down, and the short-term objective trend direction fluctuated rhythm. In the morning, the oil price hovered near the lower edge of the triangle, and the downward momentum was slightly dominant. It is expected that the crude oil trend will fall to the lower edge of the diffuse triangle, forming a weak rebound, and the probability of shock is relatively high. Today: 75.60 short, stop loss: 76.00, target 73.60.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.