The success of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. has been remarkable, with on-chain holdings exceeding 1.12 million BTC (approximately 1,128,000 BTC), accounting for 5.7% of the current Bitcoin supply, now surpassing even Satoshi Nakamoto. With Trump's imminent inauguration, the market anticipates a more lenient regulatory environment, which has further heightened institutional interest in Bitcoin. Edward Chin, co-founder of Parataxis Capital, believes that the supply-demand imbalance will lead to an increase in BTC prices.

ETF Holds Over 1.12 Million BTC, Surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto

According to data from Dune, the total on-chain holdings of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have surpassed 1,128,000 BTC, which is 5.7% of the current Bitcoin supply, exceeding that held by Satoshi Nakamoto. As the first miner on the Bitcoin network, Nakamoto is widely believed to hold between 1 million to 1.1 million BTC, spread across over 20,000 wallets, with these Bitcoins having remained untouched for decades.

Increased Institutional Interest in Bitcoin

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at the Bitcoin ETF issuer Bitwise, mentioned in an interview that since early October, he has secured agreements with Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) and institutions for Bitcoin allocations of 40%, up from the previous 10%. Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets at ETF issuer VanEck, also noted his phone has been constantly ringing, with RIAs particularly eager to move beyond their previous 10% crypto asset allocations.

Bitcoin Supply-Demand Imbalance to Cause BTC Price Surge

As demand grows and institutional whale wallets expand, there aren't enough sellers to cap the price, especially among the original holders of Bitcoin who are unwilling to sell. Additionally, a significant portion of Bitcoins are lost due to forgotten passwords or misplaced hard drives containing wallet keys, including those potentially held by Satoshi Nakamoto, who is believed to have 1.1 million BTC, with speculation that he might be deceased, thus freezing those tokens indefinitely.

Moreover, Bitcoin has a fixed total supply (21 million BTC), with new supply being released through the mining process. Every approximately four years, the mining reward is halved until all Bitcoins are mined. Currently, only about 164,250 new Bitcoins are added annually, which is roughly half of what MicroStrategy holds.

ETFs have amassed a significant number of buyers, alongside other wealth funds, overseas retail investors, and institutional investors ready to invest. However, unless Bitcoin's price significantly increases, prompting existing holders to sell, the market might not supply enough Bitcoin to meet this growing demand.

The increasing centralization of Bitcoin ownership presents a double-edged risk, and what once seemed like outlandish price predictions for Bitcoin now appear more within reach.

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.