[Bitop Review]Oil Prices Rise 2.3% on Potential OPEC+ Delay, Further Gains Possible
2024年10月31日发布
Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Oil prices extended their gains in Asian trade on Wednesday, October 31st, driven by a surprise drawdown in US crude inventories and a drop in gasoline stocks to a two-year low. Reports that OPEC+ may delay its planned oil output increase also supported prices. The unexpected decline in gasoline inventories suggests potential demand growth, raising the possibility of further gains in oil prices.
Brent crude futures settled at $72.55 a barrel, up $1.61 or 2.3%. US crude futures settled at $68.61 a barrel, up $1.4 or 2.31%.
Data released on Wednesday showed that US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, slightly below the 3% growth recorded in the previous quarter. The US economy demonstrated robust growth despite global challenges and uncertainty surrounding the November election, with consumer and business spending remaining resilient. Consumer spending, a major component of economic activity, increased by 3.7%, its fastest pace since early 2023.
The EIA reported that US crude inventories fell by 515,000 barrels for the week ended October 25th, defying expectations of a 2.3 million barrel build. US crude exports increased by 149,000 bpd to 4.261 million bpd during the week. Commercial crude imports, excluding those for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, averaged 5.975 million bpd, down 456,000 bpd from the previous week.
Markets are closely monitoring the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially after Israel's military chief warned of "very harsh" strikes against Iran if it is hit by further missile attacks. Investors will also be watching the US initial jobless claims data and the core PCE price index for September for further clues on the outlook for oil prices.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis:
Daily Chart:The daily chart shows that oil prices opened at $68.34 on Tuesday before retreating to $67.52 and then rebounding to a high of $68.89. Prices then pulled back to $67.05 before closing at $67.85, forming a spinning top candlestick pattern with a slightly longer lower shadow. The MACD indicator is in a bearish crossover with increasing bearish momentum, and the Stochastic Oscillator is pointing downwards, suggesting a bearish bias.
4-Hour Chart:The 4-hour chart shows that the confluence of the 60-day moving average (MA60) and the middle Bollinger Band around $72.2 is a key resistance zone to watch. The MACD indicator is in a bearish crossover with increasing bearish momentum, and the Stochastic Oscillator has fallen sharply towards oversold territory, confirming the bearish sentiment.
Hourly Chart:The hourly chart shows that the MACD indicator is in a bearish crossover with decreasing bearish momentum, and the Stochastic Oscillator is falling rapidly, suggesting that prices are testing Tuesday's low. If this support level holds, a rebound could occur.
Overall:The short-term outlook for oil favors buying on dips with selective selling on rallies.
Key Resistance Levels: $69.8 - $70.3
Key Support Levels: $68.0 - $67.5
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