[Bitop Review] US Q3 GDP Shows Slower-Than-Expected Growth, But Strong Consumer Spending Provides Support
2024年10月31日发布
US third-quarter economic growth, while steady, came in slightly below expectations, buoyed by robust consumer spending. Despite rising interest rates and concerns about the sustainability of economic growth, consumer spending exceeded forecasts, serving as the primary engine of the economy.
US Economy Grows by 2.8%, Slightly Below Expectations
According to a report released by the US Commerce Department on Wednesday, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 2.8% on an annualized basis in the third quarter after adjusting for seasonal and inflation effects. This result fell short of the 3.1% expected by Dow Jones economists. In comparison, GDP growth reached 3% in the second quarter.
Consumption And Government Spending Drive Growth
Personal consumption expenditures, a key indicator of economic activity, grew by 3.7% in the third quarter, the highest rate since the first quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, federal government spending also emerged as a growth driver, surging by 9.7%, with defense spending skyrocketing by 14.9%.
However, the growth in imports offset some of the upward momentum. Imports increased by 11.2% in the third quarter, which, when subtracted from GDP calculations, dampened further GDP growth. In contrast, while exports grew by 8.9%, they were unable to fully offset the impact of imports on the economy.
Inflation Slows, The Fed May Continue to Cut Interest Rates
There was some positive news on the inflation front. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 1.5% in the third quarter, below the Fed's 2% target and significantly lower than the 2.5% in the second quarter. However, excluding food and energy, core PCE increased by 2.2%, which Fed officials generally consider a better reflection of long-term trends.
Despite the strong economic performance, markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to further cut short-term borrowing rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its November 7 meeting, continuing its accommodative policy to address future economic challenges.
The Savings Rate Is Declining
The personal savings rate in the third quarter fell to 4.8%, down from the previous 5.2%. This indicates that consumers are using savings and credit to support consumption, which also implies that current consumer spending may be somewhat vulnerable and could face challenges in the future.
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