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[Bitop Review] Oil Prices Steady as US Stockpiling Fails to Boost Market, Focus Shifts to EIA Inventory Data

2024年10月30日发布

Crude Oil Market Analysis:


Oil prices were steady in early Asian trade on Wednesday, October 30th, with WTI crude trading around $67.45 per barrel.  Prices are facing resistance, and a break above this level could signal a return to a bullish trend.  Oil prices were pressured on Monday following Israel's airstrikes on Iran over the weekend, which spared key oil facilities.  Traders are also digesting news from the US Department of Energy on Monday afternoon that it is preparing to purchase 3 million barrels of crude oil to replenish its strategic reserves, but this announcement failed to provide any significant support to prices.


The US Department of Energy said late Monday that it will purchase 3 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).  The department has so far purchased more than 55 million barrels of crude oil at an average price of around $76 per barrel to refill the SPR.


Brent crude futures settled at $70.89 a barrel on Tuesday, down $0.13 or 0.18%. US crude futures settled at $67.51 a barrel, up $0.30 or 0.5%.


The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a counterintuitive dynamic in oil markets.  Iran's threats have prompted increased coordination among Middle Eastern monarchies, leading OPEC members to increase supply, putting downward pressure on oil prices.  However, not only has the conflict led to increased supply from OPEC, but Iran itself has also started to ramp up production.  Iran plans to increase its oil output from 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) to 4 million bpd.  At the same time, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude oil production rose to its highest level since October 2022, indicating that almost all producers are increasing supply.


The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday that US crude oil inventories fell by 573,000 barrels for the week ended October 25th, defying expectations of a 2.3 million barrel build.  This followed a build of 1.643 million barrels in the previous week.  The market is now awaiting the EIA crude oil inventory report due on Wednesday. 

 

Crude Oil Technical Analysis:

 

Daily Chart:The daily chart shows that oil prices have retraced nearly half of their recent gains, returning to near the recent lows to seek support.  The rebound, which consisted of a series of bullish candles, has been reversed by a series of bearish candles, suggesting that the rebound was merely a correction within a broader downtrend.  Oil prices are trading within a wide range, currently near the lower boundary.  The recent pullback after encountering resistance confirms the bearish momentum.  Prices are now testing the strength of the support near the recent lows.

 

4-Hour Chart:The 4-hour chart shows that the Bollinger Bands are gradually opening upwards.  The short-term outlook is for range-bound trading within the Bollinger Bands, with a breakout potentially leading to a continuation of the prevailing trend.

 

Overall:The short-term outlook for oil favors selling on rallies with selective buying on dips.

 

Key Resistance Levels: $68.5 - $69.0

Key Support Levels: $66.3 - $65.8


Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.