Gold Market Analysis:

In the early Asian session on Friday, September 27th, spot gold remains in a high-level consolidation, currently trading at $2672.15 per ounce. On Thursday, gold prices surged again, briefly reaching a new all-time high of $2685.49 per ounce, before closing at $2672.25 per ounce. This rise was driven by increased risk-aversion sentiment after Israel rejected international calls for a ceasefire with Hezbollah, ignoring pressure from its major ally in Washington, and continued airstrikes. However, strong U.S. initial jobless claims data provided support for U.S. Treasury yields, causing gold prices to consolidate below historic highs during the New York session, preventing further gains.

Gold reached a historical high of $2685 per ounce, fueled by China’s economic stimulus measures and rising tensions in the Middle East. The recent 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve also spurred bullish sentiment for gold, with expectations that the Fed will initiate an "aggressive" easing cycle. With U.S. rate cuts, increased safe-haven demand, and strong central bank buying, gold prices have surged over 29% this year, breaking records multiple times. Since gold does not yield interest, lower rates enhance its investment appeal.

On Thursday, September 26th, the U.S. released the latest core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index and initial jobless claims data. The core PCE price index remained steady at an annualized quarterly rate of 2.5%, in line with market expectations, indicating stable inflation pressure. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims for the week ending September 21st fell to 218,000, the lowest in four months. This figure exceeded optimistic market expectations, signaling that the labor market remains strong. Despite large corporate layoffs, the overall job market remains robust.

Gold Technical Analysis:

On the daily chart for spot gold, after touching the historical high near the 2690 level, gold prices saw a slight pullback yesterday. However, the retracement was relatively limited, as the upward trend remains difficult to disrupt in the short term. The moving averages are perfectly aligned in a bullish configuration, and the MACD indicator continues to expand upward. The focus now is whether gold can continue to break through the critical $2700 level. Additionally, be cautious of profit-taking before the weekly close.

On the 4-hour chart, economic data released during the U.S. session continues to support expectations of further rate cuts, helping gold prices remain at high levels, though the momentum has visibly slowed. This is a reasonable correction phase. The short-term moving averages are still in a bullish alignment, but attention should be paid to whether the MA5 and MA10 moving averages can hold their support levels. Additionally, be mindful of potential MACD divergence. As for trading strategy, it is recommended to mainly focus on buying on dips, while also considering short positions on rebounds.

In summary, today’s short-term gold trading strategy suggests focusing on shorting rebounds and buying on pullbacks. For the upside, key resistance levels to watch are $2680-$2685, while key support levels to monitor are $2650-$2652. Make sure to follow the market rhythm closely.

Gold Resistance Levels: 2670, 2675, 2680, 2690

Gold Support Levels: 2635, 2640, 2650, 2555

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.