[Bitop Review] Weak Labor Market Supports Rate Cut Expectations, Gold Price Fluctuates in a Narrow Range
2024年09月05日发布
Gold News Analysis:
In early Asian trading on Thursday (September 5th), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range, currently trading around $246.45 per ounce. Gold prices rebounded from a dip on Wednesday, hitting a nearly two-week low of $2471.77 per ounce during the session, and closing at $2495.45 per ounce, benefiting from the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields. The decline in US job openings strengthened the expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
The July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that the decline in job openings in July exceeded expectations. There were 1.07 job openings per unemployed person, the lowest level in three and a half years and the lowest level since May 2021, down from 1.16 in June, suggesting that the labor market is losing momentum.
The Beige Book report released by the Federal Reserve on the 4th showed that US economic activity remained unchanged or declined slightly in August. Although layoffs were not common, companies were reducing employee hours and becoming more cautious about hiring new employees. The report showed that 9 of the Fed's 12 districts reported flat or declining economic activity in August, compared with only 5 districts reporting weakening economic activity in July.
The non-farm payrolls report to be released this Friday and the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data next week will provide key references for the upcoming rate cut policy.
Gold Technical Analysis:
From the daily chart of spot gold, the gold price rebounded yesterday and recorded a K-line pattern with a long lower shadow. Although the price has rebounded, the MACD indicator has entered a dead cross process, suggesting that the callback trend has begun. It is difficult for the gold price to reverse the trend in a short period of time.
From the 4-hour chart of spot gold, after two retracement tests, the gold price currently has signs of stabilizing above the 2470 line. The MACD indicator has begun to send a golden cross reversal signal, but due to the recent main pressure level of 2500 above, it is risky to directly look at the strong in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance of the 2500 integer mark first during the day.
Overall, today's short-term operation ideas for gold are recommended to mainly buy on dips and supplement with short positions on rallies. The key resistance level to focus on in the short term is 2505-2510, and the key support level to focus on in the short term is 2475-2470.
Gold resistance levels: 2510, 2515, 2520, 2530
Gold support levels: 2480, 2475, 2470, 2460
Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.