Crude Oil News Analysis:

On Wednesday (September 4th), U.S. crude oil briefly fell below the 70 mark in early Asian trading, hitting a new low of $69.98 per barrel since January 3rd. Oil prices fell nearly 5% on Tuesday, reaching their lowest level in nearly nine months, as there were signs of a deal to resolve the disruption of crude oil production and exports in Libya.  

Brent crude oil futures fell $3.77, or 4.9%, to close at $73.75 per barrel, the lowest level since December 12th. U.S. crude oil futures fell $3.21, or 4.4%, to close at $70.34, also the lowest level since December.

The U.S. August manufacturing PMI data was poor, with the PMI below the 50 boom-bust line for the fifth consecutive month, but still above the 42.5 level. The sharp drop in U.S. stocks also weighed on oil prices. ISM said that the PMI remaining above 42.5 for a period of time indicates an overall economic expansion.

Russia fired two ballistic missiles on Tuesday, hitting a military academy in the central Ukrainian town of Poltava, killing at least 50 people and injuring 271. This was the deadliest attack in the Russo-Ukrainian war this year.

Today, the U.S. July JOLTs job openings, the U.S. July factory orders month-on-month rate, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on economic conditions, and the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision will be released. Investors need to pay attention to them. The U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data will be delayed to this Friday.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis:

From the daily chart of crude oil, the medium-term trend still maintains a volatile consolidation rhythm. 72 provides effective support for oil prices. Crude oil rebounded upwards after gaining support at the bottom of the range. The K-line has closed with a big positive line for two consecutive trading days, indicating that the bullish momentum is gradually becoming stronger. It is expected that the medium-term trend will still rebound upward within the range. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil shows a bottoming rebound rhythm. The oil price is still suppressed by the moving average system, and the short-term objective trend direction is downward. From the perspective of momentum, the long and short sides are in a stalemate, and the oil price is expected to form a secondary shock range at the bottom. It is expected that the crude oil will maintain a bottom adjustment rhythm within the day, and the main idea is still to be bearish.

Overall, the idea for crude oil trading today is to mainly focus on shorting on rallies and supplementing with long positions on dips. The key resistance level to watch in the short term is 71.5-72.0, and the key support level to watch in the short term is 69.5-69.0.

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