Bitcoin Future Outlook

Although Bitcoin recently dipped below $60,000, it has actually surged 32% since the sharp drop on August 5th, primarily driven by market optimism fueled by the Fed's dovish comments. If the Fed decides to cut interest rates, while this could initially cause Bitcoin's price to skyrocket, it may subsequently experience a pullback due to heightened concerns about an economic recession. Despite the bullish factor from the halving, Bitcoin's recent trend will be significantly influenced by the Fed's decisions. The price action in early August is the best example.

The Bitop market analysis team believes that Bitcoin could experience a 20-30% decline after a rate cut, finding support between $40,000 and $50,000. This is not an arbitrary prediction but is based on historical data showing that the peak return rate for Bitcoin in each cycle tends to decline by 60-70%, as well as the gradual decrease in volatility during historical bull markets.

Global Macroeconomics and September Data Are Unfavorable for Bitcoin

Historically, September has been a month of high volatility for Bitcoin, with an average return of -4.78% and a peak-to-trough drawdown of approximately 25%.

High volatility and the potential of "sell the news" reaction following by rate cut. This could bring more uncertainty for the market. Additionally, the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets such as the S&P 500 has increased, and its price trend will continue to be closely tied to global macroeconomic conditions.

Crypto Regulation and Political Factors

Former U.S. President Trump's commitment to crypto policies and his mysterious crypto project “World Liberty Financial”. Both demonstrate the growing involvement of political and regulatory entities in the crypto industry.

Furthermore, 24X National Exchange recently submitted a proposal to U.S. regulators, planning to launch a securities exchange that allows for 24/7 trading of crypto ETFs. Meanwhile, Australia has gradually become a significant player in the global crypto market. Over the past two years, the number of crypto ATMs in the country has increased 17-fold, making it the third-largest market globally.

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.