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[Bitop Exchange Market Watch] Fed expectations affect gold price trend, market focus on Thursday CPI data

2024年07月10日发布

Gold News Analysis:

 

On Wednesday (July 10) during the Asian morning session, spot gold fluctuated narrowly, currently trading around $2365 per ounce. Gold prices rose slightly on Tuesday, closing at $2365.07 per ounce, despite a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks in Congress, stating that the U.S. economy is "no longer overheating," fueled expectations of a September rate cut and provided support for gold prices. Investors are now awaiting the release of U.S. June inflation data later this week, which could further clarify the Fed's interest rate path.


Although gold prices briefly reached the $2400 mark earlier this week, the bullish trend has not continued, especially with the recovery of the U.S. dollar index. Currently, gold has almost retraced all its gains and is temporarily hovering slightly above $2350. This indicates that the market needs to observe the Fed's rate cut dynamics, with the CPI inflation data to be released on Thursday being particularly crucial. In his testimony before Congress last night, Fed Chairman Powell stated that the inflation rate remains above the Fed's 2% target, but it has been improving in recent months, and more positive data would strengthen the case for a rate cut.

 

Gold Technical Analysis:

 

From the spot gold daily chart, due to the sharp pullback earlier this week, gold prices have retreated to around $2350. The upward trend may be terminated in the short term, and the key lies in whether it can hold the MA10 support level today. If it falls below, it may re-enter a consolidation phase. Additionally, the MACD indicator is currently above the 0 axis, but the golden cross opening is narrowing. It is recommended to focus on the range of 2340-2380.

From the spot gold 4-hour chart, although gold prices previously refreshed recent highs, they have basically given back the gains as they failed to hold the support and continue upwards. This has resulted in an inverted V pattern in terms of form. Currently, the short-term moving averages are turning downwards again, providing resistance, and the MACD indicator is also in a bearish state. Therefore, if it continues to break below the key support during the day, it may further open up the downside space.

 

Overall:

 

Today's short-term trading strategy for gold is to focus on selling on rallies and buying on dips. The key resistance levels above are 2380-2390, and the key support levels below are 2340-2350.

 

Gold Resistance: 2370, 2380, 2385, 2390

Gold Support: 2355, 2330, 2320, 2330

 

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.