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[Bitop Review] Wall Street Warns: Buyers Are "Running Out of Ammunition ". US stocks May Face a Disastrous Decline in August, and the S&P 500 Is Likely to Fall 10% Before the Election.

2024年07月09日发布

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes closed at new highs on Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.1% to 5,572.85 and the Nasdaq up 0.3% to 18,403.74. However, despite the strong performance of US stocks, Goldman Sachs analysts are warning that the market is likely to face a two-week period of pain starting in August as funds flow out of stocks.

Goldman Sachs: Buyers are "running out of ammunition"

In a report to clients on Monday, Goldman Sachs analyst Scott Rubner wrote that equity inflows into US ETFs and mutual funds reached a record second-high of $231 billion in the first half of 2024. However, according to historical experience, August is typically the worst month of the year for stock market inflows. With third-quarter funds already deployed, Rubner expects no new inflows in August, saying that buyers are "running out of ammunition."

More importantly, he points out that such high levels of fund positioning mean that any significant uptick in volatility or disappointing corporate earnings could force investors to sell.

According to his analysis, data since 1928 shows that the S&P 500 typically reaches a local high in mid-July before experiencing a two-week period in early August that is usually the fifth-worst of the year.

Morgan Stanley: S&P 500 highly likely to pull back 10% before election

Morgan Stanley analyst Mike Wilson holds a similar view. He believes that the S&P 500 is very likely to experience a 10% correction between now and the election, adding that the third quarter will be very volatile:

"The odds of being higher from here to year-end are very low, much lower than normal. There's only a 20%-25% chance that the US stock market will be higher than where it is today by the end of the year."

Wilson warns that traders should be prepared for a stock market correction due to uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election, corporate earnings, and Federal Reserve policy. However, he is also optimistic and says he is not particularly worried about a pullback, instead believing it could create buying opportunities for investors.

 

 

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.