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[Bitop Exchange Market Watch] Gold Price Nears $2400 Mark, Boosted by Nonfarm Payroll Data, Market Volatility Intensifies

2024年07月08日发布

Gold Fundamental Analysis:


On Monday (July 8th), spot gold prices slightly weakened in early Asian trading, currently trading around $2385.69 per ounce. Unexpected results from the French election over the weekend weakened the euro and provided a rebound opportunity for the U.S. dollar, putting slight pressure on gold prices. Gold prices extended gains last Friday to their highest level in more than a month, reaching a high of $2392.82 per ounce and closing at $2390.85, after key US employment data showed a softening labor market, raising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.


Friday's (July 5th) data showed that the U.S. added 206,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, slightly above economists' estimates of 190,000, but employment data for previous months was revised downward. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, slightly above the expected 4.0%, indicating slack in the labor market and strengthening market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. The implied probability of a rate cut in September remained around 77% according to federal funds rate futures, while the dollar fell to a three-week low against other currencies, making dollar-denominated gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.


Due to the less-than-ideal nonfarm payroll data last week, concerns about the U.S. job market increased in the context of rising unemployment, coupled with the decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, further boosting gold prices on Friday night. In addition, Fed officials have been sending signals suggesting that a September rate cut is becoming increasingly likely, which is undoubtedly beneficial for gold prices to move higher. Currently, the $2400 mark is within reach, and there is a good chance that gold will once again move towards its historical high. This week, with speeches from Fed officials and the release of key economic data, the gold market may experience new fluctuations, and investors should remain vigilant and prepared to respond to rapid market changes.


Gold Technical Analysis:


From the weekly chart of spot gold, due to the influence of many positive factors, a large bullish candlestick was recorded last week. The current price has returned to slightly below the $2400 mark, which is enough to represent that the bulls have regained a clear advantage in the short term. However, the moving averages have not yet fully caught up, and the MACD indicator is also in a dead cross state, so it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively for the time being. It cannot be ruled out that there will be a pullback correction at the beginning of the week.


From the daily chart of spot gold, due to the nonfarm payroll data on Friday further raising expectations of a Fed rate cut, gold prices immediately showed a significant climb and have now successfully broken through the previous high, reaching the highest level since May. The short-term moving averages are currently accelerating upwards to provide support, and the MACD indicator is also in the process of breaking through the 0 axis. Therefore, it is recommended to maintain a dip-buying strategy in terms of operation.


In conclusion, the suggested trading strategy for gold today is to mainly buy on dips and sell on rallies, with short-term resistance at 2400-2405 and short-term support at 2375-2370.


Gold Resistance: 2370, 2375, 2378, 2385

Gold Support: 2420, 2410, 2405, 2400

 

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.