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[Bitop Exchange Market Watch] Oil Prices Edge Higher, Analyzing WTI Market Trends and Nonfarm Payroll Expectations

2024年07月08日发布

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis:


On Monday (July 8th), international oil prices fluctuated narrowly at high levels in early Asian trading, with WTI crude oil currently trading around $83.30 per barrel. Last week, crude oil continued its strong rally of the previous ten days after the opening and successfully broke through $82, opening up new upside potential. Due to the intertwined factors of weak demand signals from Asia and a decline in U.S. crude inventories, oil prices held steady near their highs. Brent crude oil prices reached their highest level since April, remaining above $86 per barrel. Demand is still growing, and in areas where demand is declining, the decline is small, making crude oil more prone to rise than fall.


On Friday (July 5th), data showed that the U.S. added 206,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, slightly above economists' estimates of 190,000. Although the overall figure was better than expected, the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1% and the slowdown in wage growth provided more reasons for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near future. Currently, oil prices are consolidating at high levels, with mixed bullish and bearish factors. The strengthening of this expectation has raised market expectations for oil demand growth, providing support for oil prices.


Crude Oil Technical Analysis:


From the recent trend of crude oil, the recent market has been repeatedly consolidating in the high range of 80.2-82, which is consistent with the previous strategy range. So far, it has stood above $84.


From a daily perspective, oil prices have been in a unilateral upward trend since June 5th, with short-term moving averages aligned in a bullish pattern, the MACD golden cross running well, and the Bollinger Bands opening up. The bulls still have a clear upper hand.

Although it was previously suppressed by resistance near the April 26th high of $84.5, the pullback in oil prices was relatively small and did not fall below the 5 and 10-day moving average support at $82.6, resulting in another rebound. The bulls are testing the high, suggesting a potential for further upward movement. If it breaks above $84.5, it could further test the resistance near the April 19th high of $86.26.


The medium-term trend of oil is repeatedly oscillating upwards, reaching new highs within the week, but the continuity and strength of the rise after reaching new highs have changed. There is some resistance to oil prices near $85. The medium-term trend remains upward, continuing to be mainly characterized by repeated rises.


In conclusion, the suggested trading strategy for crude oil today is to mainly buy on dips and sell on rallies, with short-term resistance at $84.5-$85.0 and short-term support at $82.2-$81.7.

 

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.