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[Bitop Exchange Market Watch] Oil Prices Consolidate at Highs, Focus on US Nonfarm Payrolls Report Tonight

2024年07月05日发布

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis:

 

On Friday (July 5th), international oil prices fluctuated narrowly in early Asian trading, with WTI crude oil currently trading around $83.90 per barrel. On Thursday (July 4th), oil prices held steady near their highs due to a combination of weak demand signals from Asia and a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories. Brent crude oil reached its highest level since April, remaining above $87 per barrel. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil climbed to $84 per barrel, a new 11-week high.


Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.55% on Thursday, settling at $87.55 per barrel. WTI crude oil futures also rose 0.55%, closing at $84.06 per barrel.


Currently, oil prices are consolidating at high levels, with mixed bullish and bearish factors. Market focus has shifted to the upcoming release of the U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report. If the data falls short of expectations, it could strengthen expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, further boosting oil prices. However, if the data exceeds expectations, it could trigger profit-taking and put pressure on oil prices. Investors need to closely monitor the nonfarm payroll data and geopolitical developments.

 

Crude Oil Technical Analysis:

 

WTI crude oil experienced a volatile session yesterday, retracing to the $83 level before rebounding due to the holiday. The technical pattern shows a dip followed by a rebound, with the price testing the resistance at $84.2 overnight. The daily candlestick chart shows a long lower shadow doji, indicating a strong consolidation at high levels.


On the daily chart, oil prices have been in a unilateral uptrend since June 5th, with short-term moving averages aligned in a bullish pattern, the MACD golden cross running well, and the Bollinger Bands opening up. The bulls still have a clear upper hand, and despite previous resistance near the April 26th high of $84.46, the pullback in oil prices has been relatively small, suggesting a potential for further upward movement. If it breaks above $84.46, it could further test the resistance near the April 19th high of $86.26.

 

In conclusion, the suggested trading strategy for crude oil today is to mainly buy on dips and sell on rallies, with short-term resistance at $85.0-$85.5 and short-term support at $83.0-$82.5.

 

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.