On Monday (April 13) in early Asian trading, spot gold opened down more than 2%, trading around $4652 per ounce. The negotiations between the US and Iran on Saturday failed to reach any agreement, mainly due to setbacks on three major sticking points: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment, and the unfreezing of Iranian overseas assets. Following the breakdown in negotiations, both sides reiterated their hardline stances. The US announced a blockade of Iranian ports starting on the 13th, while Trump considered limited strikes against Iran. This renewed geopolitical tension weakened expectations of a Fed rate cut, with the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in April at 98.4%.

Following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and news of the Strait blockade, the market exhibited a typical risk-averse reaction. The US dollar index rose as much as 0.47% to 99.19, quickly recovering its previous losses. In this environment, the dollar's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset increased, squeezing the space for gold. While gold is often seen as a hedge against geopolitical risks, its performance tends to decouple under the dual pressures of a strong dollar and high interest rate expectations. Recent data shows that even with ongoing tensions in the Middle East, gold has sometimes failed to rise as expected, instead coming under pressure due to a rebounding dollar.

From a technical perspective, the $4,600 level is crucial for gold's support. If prices can stabilize at this level, the current decline may simply be a deep correction within a bull market. However, if geopolitical concerns continue to be suppressed by inflation and interest rate hike expectations, gold prices could fall further. From a broader perspective, however, global geopolitical risks are systemically rising, the trend of de-dollarization continues, and central banks' demand for gold remains strong—these structural factors have not fundamentally changed.

Looking at the weekly chart for spot gold, prices have continued their previous rebound and gradually stabilized above the $4,600 mark, although the gains have been relatively limited, mainly due to the current uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical situation. At present, the crossover of short-term moving averages offers limited assistance, but the MACD indicator is still in a death cross state. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the market will continue to fluctuate at high levels at the beginning of this week. It is recommended to focus on buying low and selling high. Resistance: 4720-4730-4740 Support: 4705-4690-4680.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.