On Thursday (March 19) in early Asian trading, spot gold hovered at low levels, currently trading at $4838.75 per ounce. Gold prices fell sharply on Wednesday, with spot gold dropping nearly 4% to $4818.83 per ounce, hitting a more than one-month low during the session. The Federal Reserve, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged, but stated that inflation remained high and predicted only one more rate cut this year. Chairman Powell acknowledged the significant uncertainty brought about by the Iran war, leading to a stronger dollar and suppressing safe-haven demand for gold.

Currently, the pressure on gold mainly stems from short-term macroeconomic factors: a strong dollar + high interest rate expectations + persistent inflation, all combining to create a powerful bearish force. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, the fundamentals supporting gold remain solid. The trend of geopolitical fragmentation is irreversible, and factors such as continued central bank gold purchases, potential ETF inflows, and supply constraints are still accumulating momentum. If the oil price shock proves to be temporary, or if there are signs of easing tensions, the possibility of the Federal Reserve restarting its easing measures will rise again, and gold is expected to resume its upward trend.

From the daily chart of spot gold, yesterday's sharp decline resulted in a large bearish candlestick. Currently, the MACD indicator is still in a death cross, and the MA5 moving average continues to suppress prices, indicating that the bears still control the trend. Further declines are possible, and the MA5 resistance level should be closely monitored.

From the 4-hour chart of spot gold, after a rebound confirming a break below the trading range, prices fell sharply. The MACD indicator has again issued a death cross signal, indicating a renewed downtrend. The moving averages are also currently in a bearish alignment. It is recommended to maintain a sell-on-rallies strategy, paying attention to the resistance levels of the MA5 and MA10 moving averages. Resistance: 4850-4860-4870 Support: 4840-4830-4820

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.