On Thursday (March 19th) in early Asian trading, US crude oil rose nearly 3%, trading around $98.30 per barrel. The situation in the Middle East has entered a critical stage, with the escalating conflict having a substantial impact on the global energy market. Following the attack on a key gas field, Iran stated it would retaliate against related energy facilities and listed energy facilities in several Gulf oil-producing countries as potential targets. This statement quickly triggered high market concern about energy supply security, with energy infrastructure in the relevant region entering emergency response mode, significantly increasing risks in the global energy market.

From the supply side, the impact of the conflict on global oil flows has already begun to appear. Market surveys show that as of mid-March, oil exports from the eight major Gulf oil-producing countries had fallen to an average of approximately 9.71 million barrels per day, a decrease of approximately 61% compared to 25.13 million barrels per day in February. It is worth noting that before the conflict, the region accounted for approximately 36% of global seaborne oil exports. The disruption of this key supply area has rapidly put the global energy market under tension. From a daily chart perspective, crude oil has broken through the upper edge of its previous consolidation range, showing a clear continuation of its upward trend. The key support level has moved up to around $90, while resistance levels are at $100 and $110. Momentum indicators show that the bulls are in control.

In the short term (1-hour chart), crude oil is testing the upper edge of its range around $99.60. The short-term objective trend is upward within the range. Bullish momentum is strong. Although the price has not yet broken through the upper edge of the range in the early morning, it is expected that after a slight pullback during the day, crude oil will continue to attack the upper resistance level and break through upwards. Today: Buy at $96.30, stop loss at $94.00, target $100.00.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.