On Wednesday (March 18th) in early Asian trading, US crude oil was trading around $95.22 per barrel. Iran recently launched attacks on oil production facilities in the UAE and Iraq, marking the first direct attack on upstream production since the conflict began. This event briefly increased market concerns about supply disruptions. However, in terms of price performance, oil prices did not experience a sustained one-sided rise, but instead fluctuated repeatedly at high levels, indicating that the geopolitical risk premium had already been largely priced in during the previous price increase.

From a supply and demand fundamentals perspective, US inventory data exerted significant downward pressure on oil prices. According to data released by the American Petroleum Institute, as of the week ending March 13th, US crude oil inventories increased by approximately 6.6 million barrels, far exceeding the market expectation of a decrease of approximately 600,000 barrels. This data significantly weakened the narrative of tight supply, indicating that there may not be a substantial shortage in the market in the short term.

From a daily chart perspective, US crude oil maintains its upward trend, but the upward slope has slowed significantly, and prices are fluctuating repeatedly in the high-level area, indicating increasing divergence between bulls and bears. Currently, the $90 level forms key support, while the $97-$100 range is a significant resistance area. From a momentum perspective, although the trend has not completely weakened, it has shown signs of high-level consolidation, a typical characteristic of the end of an uptrend.

In the short term (1H), crude oil's price action repeatedly crosses the moving average system, indicating a predominantly volatile short-term trend. The range is expected to be between $99.60 and $91.00. The MACD indicator is hovering near the zero line, with bullish and bearish momentum locked in a stalemate. It is anticipated that crude oil will mainly fluctuate within this range today. Today's strategy: Buy at $92.70, stop loss at $91.50, target $96.00.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.