Bitcoin hit a high of $75,500 earlier today before retreating and consolidating near $73,910. CryptoQuant highlights double on-chain resistance between $75,000 and $85,000. The Federal Reserve will release its March interest-rate decision early Thursday morning (Beijing time), with markets awaiting Chair Powell’s comments on stagflation risks.

Bitcoin climbed as high as $75,500 this morning, then gave back gains and fell into the $73,500 zone. At press time, it is trading at $73,910. Ethereum continues to hold the $2,300 level and is currently at $2,328. Over the past 24 hours, total crypto futures liquidations reached $253 million, with long and short liquidations roughly balanced, indicating the overall market remains in a sideways consolidation pattern.

CryptoQuant: Upside Encounters Resistance

On March 18, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, published a report identifying two layers of resistance for Bitcoin between $75,000 and $85,000:The first layer sits near $75,000, corresponding to the lower boundary of the “Realized Price” zone for traders.The second layer is at $85,000, aligning with the main body of traders’ on-chain realized cost basis.

Moreno noted in the report: “Historically, this price band has acted as resistance during bear markets. In fact, after Bitcoin rallied from $80,000 to $98,000, the $85,000 zone provided clear resistance in both mid-January and October 2025.” In other words, if the current rebound fails to hold firmly above these levels, both technical and on-chain data suggest the path higher will not be smooth.

Fed Decision Thursday; Stagflation Concerns in Focus

Early Thursday morning (Beijing time, March 19), the Federal Reserve will announce the outcome of its March policy meeting. Huatai Securities expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, while lowering its economic growth forecast and raising its inflation forecast. However, the dot plot’s rate-cut guidance is likely to remain unchanged.

The market’s primary concern revolves around the Middle East situation. Recent escalation in conflicts has driven oil prices significantly higher. Some investors worry that rising energy costs could intensify stagflation pressures, potentially forcing the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance. Huatai Securities believes oil-price volatility alone is insufficient to alter the Fed’s projected rate-cut path in June and September, and any short-term impact will be limited.

Markets are also watching two key comments from Fed Chair Powell during the press conference:His assessment of whether Middle East developments could push inflation higher.Any remarks on recent political interference discussions and whether he intends to stay on as a governor.

Although the second point is not a direct monetary-policy issue, it could affect market confidence in the Fed’s independence.

Conservative Rate-Cut Expectations Leave Crypto Under Pressure

Looking further out, current market pricing implies fewer than one full rate cut from the Fed in 2026. Fed officials continue to emphasize a “data-dependent” approach without pre-committing to any path. Barclays Bank forecasts at most one rate cut this year—in June—with very limited room for monetary easing.

In this environment, Bitcoin’s upside momentum faces dual constraints: technical pressure from the on-chain resistance band and limited improvement in macro liquidity, which makes sustained capital inflows difficult. CryptoQuant data also shows that while derivatives traders remain overall bullish, the balanced long/short liquidation volumes indicate the market has yet to form a clear directional bet.

The Fed’s rate decision and Powell’s press conference early Thursday morning will serve as the key catalyst for near-term direction. If the dot plot signals a more hawkish tone than expected, the $75,000 resistance will become even harder to break. Conversely, if the tone turns dovish, the market could once again test that level.

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