On Tuesday (March 17th) in early Asian trading, US crude oil traded around $95.25 per barrel. Oil prices fell on Monday as some ships passed through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, temporarily easing extreme market concerns about supply disruptions, and also influenced by pre-expiration selling of near-month contracts.

Previously, due to escalating geopolitical conflict, the two major oil benchmarks had risen by nearly 40% since the end of February. Despite Trump's call for international assistance in clearing the Strait, the EU made it clear that it currently has no intention of expanding its military presence in the region. Meanwhile, the US and Iran resumed their first known direct communication since the outbreak of the war, with the US Treasury Secretary stating "no objection" to some ships passing through the Strait and that measures to alleviate prices would depend on the duration of the conflict. Furthermore, the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated it might release more oil reserves as needed to curb oil price increases triggered by the Iran conflict.

From a daily chart perspective, WTI crude oil maintains its upward trend, with prices holding above $90 and moving averages in a bullish alignment, indicating the trend remains intact. However, it's important to note that the $95-$97 range has become a key resistance area, with repeated attempts to break through failing, indicating increasing selling pressure. Meanwhile, while momentum indicators remain in bullish territory, upward momentum is slowing, suggesting the trend is entering its later stages.

In the short term (1H), crude oil is trending downwards with fluctuations. Prices have broken below the moving average system and are facing resistance, indicating a shift in the short-term objective trend. The MACD indicator has crossed below the zero line, with the fast and slow lines coinciding with the bearish histogram, indicating strong bearish momentum. Oil prices are currently in a minor consolidation phase in the morning. Based on the alternation of primary and secondary factors, there is a risk of further decline today, but the downside is limited. Today's strategy: Buy at 96.00, stop loss at 95.00, target 99.00.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.