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[Bitop Review] December Rate Cut Probability Plunges, Bitcoin Falls Below $100,000, Network-Wide Liquidations Reach $755 Million

2025年11月14日发布

The government shutdown lasting over six weeks finally ended in the United States on Wednesday evening. Traders are concerned that the missing key data due to the shutdown could strengthen officials' rationale for keeping interest rates unchanged. The three major U.S. stock indices all recorded their worst single-day performance since October 10, led by declines in tech stocks. Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the $100,000 mark, while Ethereum (ETH) dropped to just above $3,200. Within 24 hours, positions worth up to $755 million were liquidated. Given that Bitcoin's recent performance has lagged behind gold and even the S&P 500 index, people are starting to feel fatigued. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10X Research, further pointed out that 93K is a key technical support level.



U.S. Longest Government Shutdown Ends, Market Expectations for December Rate Cut Plunge


President Trump signed a bill ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, but it may still take some time for federal agencies to fully restart. U.S. Chief Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett stated in an interview with FOX News that the October jobs report will not include unemployment rate data.


Federal Reserve Chair Powell said last month that a rate cut is not a done deal, and the final decision will depend on upcoming information. Some traders may worry that the missing key data due to the government shutdown could bolster officials' reasons for maintaining interest rates unchanged.


According to the CME FedWatch Tool, currently only 50.7% of traders believe there could be a 25 basis point rate cut in December, a significant drop from 95% a month ago.



Bitcoin Falls Below $100,000, Network-Wide Liquidations Reach $755 Million


The overall crypto market capitalization fell 2.5% to $3.34 trillion, with Bitcoin (BTC) breaking below the $100,000 threshold and Ethereum (ETH) dropping to just above $3,200. Within 24 hours, positions worth up to $755 million were liquidated, with Bitcoin accounting for $273 million and Ethereum for $228 million as the largest portions.


Even retail investors, who have traditionally been unafraid of market downturns and continued buying ETFs, seem to be showing signs of waning confidence. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw another outflow of $280 million on November 12, while Ethereum ETFs experienced an outflow of $180 million. Given that Bitcoin's recent performance has lagged behind gold and even the S&P 500 index, people are clearly starting to feel fatigued.




Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.