On Thursday (November 13th), US crude oil traded around $58.30 per barrel. Oil prices fell by more than 4% on Thursday, mainly due to an OPEC report predicting that global oil supply will reach parity with demand by 2026. This marks a further shift in its forecast from a supply shortage to a supply-demand balance.

OPEC's rare shift to a pessimistic outlook, continued increases in US crude oil inventories, and the futures curve falling into a "futures premium" all indicate a global oversupply of crude oil. Although some analysts believe the market has overreacted, the increased downward pressure on oil prices is a fact. If the oversupply continues, falling oil prices may alleviate inflation, but it also makes the outlook for the energy market more complex.

From a daily chart perspective, oil prices are currently near the key support level of $58. If this level is effectively broken, the next target support range may be between $56 and $55.50.

From a technical perspective, the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) has crossed below the 20-day EMA, indicating a weak short-term trend. The 4-day relative strength index (RSI) is hovering around 40, still in a downward channel, and has not yet shown oversold rebound signals. If the price fails to recover the $60 mark, market sentiment will remain bearish, and the upside potential will be limited. Today's crude oil trading recommendation: Short at 58.5, stop loss at 56.50, target 60.50.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.