BTC

BTC fell below the $100,000 mark around 4 AM this morning (5th), officially breaking through key support. Although the price rebounded afterward, closing at $101,497, it soon broke below again, with today's low reaching $98,966 so far.

Last Friday's analysis somewhat predicted this wave of decline, with the lowest target price at $102,000, based on the premise that the price could hold above $100,000. However, the current market situation appears worse than expected. Factors such as the U.S. government shutdown, concerns over an AI bubble, and the lack of innovation in the crypto industry mean that even an easing of U.S.-China trade tensions cannot add enough confidence to the market.

From a technical analysis perspective, both the crash on October 10 and yesterday's decline saw trading volumes far higher than during uptrends. This indicates a severe lack of bullish momentum, which is the primary factor for the continuation of the downtrend. Secondly, BTC's pattern has formed an expanding formation (white line) and a rounded top (green line), which are typical head patterns, suggesting a higher likelihood of price reversal and decline. Thirdly, the price has repeatedly broken key levels. Yesterday's drop not only broke the mid-term uptrend line (yellow line) but also the $100,000 support. Breaking the $100,000 integer level has a more significant psychological impact on investors and shows that buying support can no longer hold the price.

Based on the above, we can expect the price to continue the previous downtrend. Investors should closely monitor whether there is any retest of resistance in the near term, particularly paying attention to the key levels of $105,000 and $108,000. The former is between the Fibonacci 0.707 and 0.618 levels, close to the lower edge of the trend line, and also a dense price area. The latter is where the Fibonacci 0.5 level coincides with a trading dense zone and may also be at the lower edge of the trend line.

If the price shows clear resistance at these two points, you can enter short positions. Take-profit targets can be set in batches at $99,000, $94,200, and $92,000. Stop-loss can be chosen based on personal risk tolerance, such as $110,760 or $111,260.

Reference Points:

Direction: Short

Entry: $105,000 / $108,000

Take Profit: $99,000 / $94,200 / $92,000

Stop Loss: $110,760 / $111,260

ETH

ETH's trend is also declining like BTC, with even weaker signs. Our analysis last week mentioned that ETH couldn't even break the previous high before falling, and yesterday's price dropped to $3,057, approaching a break below the $3,000 mark. At the time of writing, the price has slightly rebounded, currently at $3,322. However, since October 27, the price has fallen by up to 27.5%, completely giving back the gains since mid-July.

ETH also shows a rounded top pattern, indicating that buying pressure is clearly unable to push the price higher. Investors should handle it the same way as BTC, observing whether there is any retest of resistance in the coming days. Pay particular attention to the price reaction between $3,650 and $3,800. The former is the Fibonacci 0.5 level and previous support, while the latter is where the Fibonacci 0.382 level coincides with a trading dense zone. If the price encounters resistance at these two levels, you can choose to enter short positions. Take-profit targets can be set in batches at $3,057, $2,900, and $2,750. Stop-loss can be set above $3,950 or $4,050.

Reference Points:

Direction: Short

Entry: $3,650 / $3,800

Take Profit: $3,057 / $2,900 / $2,750

Stop Loss: $3,950 / $4,050

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.