On Monday (November 3rd) during the Asian trading session, US crude oil rose slightly, trading around $61.17 per barrel, approaching a short-term resistance level. Since the beginning of the year, investors have generally believed that the oil market is heading towards a sustained surplus, potentially reaching a peak of 4 million barrels per day in inventory by 2026. However, last week's US Treasury sanctions against Russia's Rosneft and Lukoil prompted the market to reassess the supply and demand outlook. Currently, the global crude oil surplus remains around 1.9 million barrels per day. Although supply still exceeds demand, the rate of surplus growth may slow in the future, thus providing some support for oil prices.

After another small production increase next month, OPEC+ will pause production increases in the first quarter of next year. The organization is seeking a balance between competing for market share and the emerging signs of oversupply in the market. At a video conference on November 2nd, key member countries led by Saudi Arabia agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day next month, consistent with the production increase plans for October and November, followed by a suspension of production increases from January to March next year.

From a daily chart perspective, crude oil prices touched around 56 and formed three consecutive bullish candlesticks, recovering the previous decline. Oil prices have broken through the moving average system, indicating a shift to a consolidation pattern in the medium term. The MACD indicator is widening upwards below the zero line, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. A medium-term recovery in crude oil prices is expected, with overall consolidation within a range.

In the short term (1H), crude oil is in a range-bound pattern, with the upper limit of the range broken and trending upwards. The moving average system is in a bullish alignment, indicating an upward short-term trend. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines coincide with the bullish histogram, suggesting strong upward momentum. Crude oil prices are expected to continue their upward trend today. Today's strategy: Buy at 60.90, stop loss at 60.40, target 61.90.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.